The Many Faces of Belarusia's Dictator

The Iron Fist

On August 9, 2020, unprecedented election fraud in Belarus sparked a massive wave of protests across the country. Thousands of demonstrators flooded the streets, demanding that Alexander Lukashenko step down. The Belarusian people claimed that over 80% had actually voted for Svetlana Tikhanovskaya—not Lukashenko.

However, not all countries supported the Belarusian people’s desire to rid themselves of dictatorship. The leaders of Russia, China, and Kazakhstan congratulated Lukashenko on his so-called “victory” and offered him their full support. These leaders, shaped and inspired by communist and totalitarian ideologies, saw in Lukashenko a kindred spirit.

Lukashenko is yet another product of this system. Born in 1954, he is a pure creation of the Soviet regime. To this day, he has preserved not only the structure but also the spirit of the KGB. Throughout his 26-year rule, he employed KGB-style repression to maintain strict control over the Belarusian people. Many of his political opponents have disappeared without a trace.

Lukashenko became president of Belarus in 1994 and has since worked hard to align himself with the Kremlin. One of his first moves was declaring Russian the official state language of Belarus.

Before 2000, Lukashenko harbored hopes of succeeding Boris Yeltsin. Indeed, on December 8, 1999, he and Yeltsin signed an agreement to integrate their two states.

But when Vladimir Putin rose to power in 2000, everything changed.

Over the past two decades, Lukashenko and Putin have played a game of uneasy cooperation and tension. Lukashenko has sought financial aid from Moscow, while Putin has pushed for military and political integration, including the merger of Belarus into Russia. Though the two men have long despised each other, they both understand they still need one another, for now.

Slippery Lukashenko

Throughout his presidency, Lukashenko has been repeatedly sanctioned by the West for brutally oppressing his people. A skilled manipulator, he has changed his political “mask” many times. At various points, he has posed as a pro-Western leader offering Minsk as a neutral site for international negotiations; as Putin’s loyal “younger brother”; as a brotherly ally to Ukraine; and more recently, as a defender of Russia against so-called Western aggression.

His real nature is easy to discern. On February 1, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo visited Minsk at Lukashenko’s invitation to discuss preserving Belarus’s sovereignty and independence from Russia. Though Washington was well aware of who Lukashenko really was, the U.S. extended a diplomatic hand for the sake of the Belarusian people and their independence.

“The United States wants to help Belarus build its own sovereign country,” Pompeo said at a news conference. “Our energy producers stand ready to deliver 100% of the oil you need at competitive prices. We are the biggest energy producer in the world, and all you have to do is call us.”

Encouraged by this support, Lukashenko publicly declared that Belarus should not be forced to kneel before Russia and that he would no longer beg Putin for oil “every New Year’s Eve.” He proceeded to purchase oil from the U.S.

However, the moment America and the EU demanded democratic elections, Lukashenko again changed course—this time running straight back into Putin’s arms.

After arriving in Moscow to curry favor with Putin, Lukashenko began accusing the United States, Ukraine, and NATO of plotting to invade Belarus, claiming NATO tanks were already approaching its borders.

Desperate to stay in power, he was ready to sign any agreement with Russia—even those involving changes to the Belarusian constitution and deeper integration with Russia. He requested military support and new weaponry from Putin under the pretext of resisting “Western aggression.” At the same time, he tried to frighten Putin with the threat of a “domino effect”—if Lukashenko fell, Putin could be next.

After making a series of promises to the Kremlin, Lukashenko returned to Belarus in secret. Only about 700 people showed up for his low-key inauguration ceremony on September 23. Gone were the large audiences and foreign delegations of past inaugurations. Even Putin was not informed of the event.

Lukashenko as a Potential Disaster for Eastern Europe

Lukashenko, the chameleon-like dictator, has completely lost the trust of his people. He has now become a geopolitical threat capable of igniting another crisis in Eastern Europe. At present, both Russia and the West are trying to avoid escalating the situation.

As mentioned earlier, both Lukashenko and Putin are products of the same totalitarian machine, and neither intends to relinquish power voluntarily. Despite public reassurances, Putin has begun waging a hybrid war in Belarus. He has already sent aircraft loaded with Russian propagandists and broadcasting equipment. These agents now control Belarusian TV and radio stations, saturating them with pro-Kremlin messaging to promote full political unification with Russia.

Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and the Belarusian people know this battle against two dictators will not be easy. But they are not alone. The democratic world will stand with them to ensure that the words “dictator” and “dictatorship” become nothing more than distant echoes in the history of Belarus.