The Iron Fist
On August 9, 2020, unprecedented ballot falsifications in Belarus caused a massive explosion of protests throughout the country. Thousands of protesters poured out into the streets to demand that Alexander Lukashenko leave office. The Belarusian people claimed that more than 80% of voters had voted for Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, not Lukashenko.
Not all countries shared the Belarusian people’s desire to see their country free of Lukashenko’s dictatorship. Dictators of such countries as Russia, China, and Kazakhstan congratulated Lukashenko on his “victory” and gave full support to the Belarusian dictator. These leaders were all raised and inspired by the ideology of communism and totalitarianism.
Lukashenko is another example of such dictators: He was born in 1954 and 100% became a product of the Soviet regime. To this day, he has retained not only the structure but also the essence of the KGB. Throughout his 26-year reign, with the KGB’s help and structures, he kept all Belarus people under an iron fist. Throughout these years, many opponents to his regime have vanished without a trace.
Lukashenko became president of Belarus in 1994. Since that time, he has tried his very best to be as close to the Kremlin as possible. He even made Russian the state language in Belarus.
Prior to 2000, Lukashenko fully hoped he would become Boris Yeltsin’s successor. Indeed, on December 8, 1999, Lukashenko and Yeltsin signed an agreement for integration—a merger of the two states.
However, when Vladimir Putin came to power in 2000, the situation changed dramatically.
In the last 20 years, Putin and Lukashenko have been engaged in a game of constant armistice and conflict: Lukashenko has been pulling money from Moscow, and Putin had been seeking military–political cooperation and consent for Belarus to merge with Russia. During all this time, the two dictators have hated each other; however, they understand that they each need one another for the time being.
Slippery Lukashenko
During his presidency, Lukashenko was repeatedly subjected to Western sanctions for the brutal discrimination of his people. He is a great manipulator and has successfully managed to change his face mask repeatedly: First he was a pro-Western president, providing Minsk with a neutral zone for negotiations among the West, Ukraine, and Russia. Then he called himself Putin’s younger brother. Then he called Ukrainians the brothers of the Belarusian people. Most recently he was ready to die for Russia in the fight against Western aggressors.
We don’t need to look very hard to get a true picture of him. At Lukashenko’s invitation, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo arrived in Belarus on February 1 to help Lukashenko maintain Belarus’s sovereignty and independence from Russia. The US government clearly knew who Lukashenko was and is, but for the sake of the Belarusian people and their independence, it again decided to take a step forward.
“The United States wants to help Belarus build its own sovereign country,” Pompeo said at a news conference. “Our energy producers stand ready to deliver 100% of the oil you need at competitive prices. We are the biggest energy producer in the world, and all you have to do is call us.”
Inspired by the meeting results, Lukashenko has repeatedly and publicly stated that Belarus should not kneel before Russia and that he does not want “every year on the night of December 31 to kneel” before Putin and beg him for oil. Thus, he decided to buy oil from the USA.
As soon as America and the EU demanded that Lukashenko hold democratic presidential elections, he immediately changed his mask and pivoted to his hated but now-necessary friend Putin.
After Lukashenko arrived in Moscow to please Putin, he began publicly accusing the United States, Ukraine, and NATO of trying to occupy Belarus. He claimed that NATO tanks were already nearing the borders of Belarus.
To ensure that Putin helped him maintain his power and his life, he was ready to sign any agreements with Russia, including changing the Belarusian constitution and accelerating the merger with Russia. To avoid Western aggression, he asked Putin for military assistance and new weapons. At the same time, he did not forgo the opportunity to scare Putin with the “domino” process: If Lukashenko were removed from power today, the same might happen to Putin tomorrow.
After making all his pledges and promises to Putin, he returned to Belarus secretly—away from the prying eyes of Moscow as well as “his 80% of voters”—held his inauguration in the presence of only about 700 people on September 23. Previously, a much larger audience and many foreign delegations would have been invited to the inauguration. In this event, even Putin was not aware.
Lukashenko as a Potential Disaster for Eastern Europe
The multifaced dictator Lukashenko has absolutely lost the trust of his people. He became a global problem, which may cause another explosion in Eastern Europe. In the current situation, Russia and Western countries have agreed not to interfere or aggravate Belarus’s situation.
As previously mentioned, Lukashenko and Putin are products of the same totalitarian system, and they will never cede their power to anyone. Despite the agreements and promises, Putin no longer misses any opportunity to start a hybrid war in Belarus and even sent two aircraft to the country with professional propagandist journalists and equipment for them. They have already begun to control all national TV and radio stations of Belarus and are conducting mass propaganda promoting the Kremlin’s interests to merge the two countries.
Svetlana Tikhanovskaya and the Belarussian people understand that an undeclared war with two dictators will not be easy. However, in this struggle they are not alone. The countries of the civilized world will do everything possible to ensure that the words, "dictator and dictatorship" remain a distant echo in the history of the Belarusian people.